Kuala Besut by-election is pointing towards a blue wave

Ask any person from Kuala Besut which is their favourite local football team and their likely reply will be Kelantan or Kelate.
Almost 90% of the people here support the team, also known as the Red Warriors, considered one of the most organised teams in the country.

Roadside stalls can only be seen selling Kelantan jerseys although Kuala Besut is inside Terengganu. 
It’s the same with the accent used in this sleepy coastal town – people here kecek kelate (speak Kelantan) instead of cakap Terengganu (speak Terengganu).

Instead of saying makang (eat), people say make. Instead of pisang (banana), people say pise. Instead of Ikang (fish), they say ike.

The only thing that separates Kuala Besut and neighbouring Pasir Puteh in Kelantan is a big arch marking the borders between the two states. Everything else is similar – Kuala Besut seems to be more Kelantan than Terengganu.

Politically however, the Besut people don’t follow the footsteps of the Kelantan people who are hardened PAS supporters. The Besut people have a mind of their own and are aligned more to the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional.

In fact, since the 2004 general elections, PAS has not won any of the state seats - Kuala Besut, Kota Putera, Jertih and Hulu Besut - under the Besut parliamentary constituency. It is also the only parliamentary constituency in Terengganu without a PAS state representative.

Tomorrow, the people of Kuala Besut will vote in one of the most important by-elections in recent Malaysian history. Barisan candidate Tengku Zaihan Che Ku Rahman of is facing Azlan Yusof of PAS.
This by-election is crucial for Barisan, which has 16 to PAS’ 15 seats in the state assembly, and a PAS victory will result in a “hung state assembly.”

Former assemblyman Dr A. Rahman Mokhtar who died on June 26, won the seat in the May general elections with a majority of 2,434 votes. 

The previous two elections in 2004 and 2008 saw victories for Barisan with similar majorities and this time the ruling coalition is aiming to double its majority.
PAS only won the seat back in 1999 with a majority of 487 votes. That was also the year when PAS ruled the state.

Political pundits say there is no indication that PAS will be able to repeat that result in this by-election.
In public, however, PAS leaders are saying that they are in for a “shock” victory, but privately they acknowledge that they have an arduous task overcoming the odds.

 Both parties have equally strong machinery and have been campaigning from house to house, meeting as many voters as possible from morning until midnight. Since it is Ramadhan, many of the campaigns involve prayers with the community.

To ensure that the voters in Kuala Besut remain on the blue side, Barisan has pledged many projects to improve the livelihood of the constituents.

The biggest project would be the RM250million to deepen the Sungai Besut estuary for the fishing and tourism industries.

The government also approved a RM35 million project to upgrade and fix the non-functioning Lowvier Dam in Kampung Nangka.
Besides that, the government also announced an RM28million project to build a secondary school in Tok Saboh.

It also presented livestock such as goats, chickens and cows to 314 farmers in Kuala Besut. 
According to a source, more than 15 government agencies have been visiting  Pulau Perhentian to give away "goodies."

Barisan has maintained that the promises and projects are not by-election gimmicks but rather their commitment to the people here. 

PAS leaders estimated that the Barisan government had pledged close to RM373million during the by-election campaign.

On the PAS side, they have been bandying around the 16:16 Terengganu Baru (New Terengganu) agenda. They keep harping that even if they won the Kuala Besut seat, they are not interested in tops posts of the state.

Instead, they say that an equal number of seats for Barisan and the opposition in the state assembly will ensure more transparency and accountability in the running of the state.
“We will support the good things that Barisan want to implement for the people,”  are words of PAS leaders at their daily ceramah.

As expected, PAS went on the offensive against Umno, highlighting various misdemeanours of the current state government through daily press conferences and ceramah.

Except for the ceramah, which featured PAS spiritual leader Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat and opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the attendances at other opposition ceramah have been very low.
Yesterday, about  3,000 people attended the opposition's final mega ceramah. Anwar and Nik Aziz were touted speakers, but they were nowhere to be seen.

PAS has also been highlighting the alleged feud between current and former Terengganu Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Said and Datuk Seri Idris Jusoh respectively. They say that the feud has affected the development of Besut.

Barisan has countered by alleging that PAS’ track record during their administration of the state from 1999-2004 was dismal.

Although it was Ramadhan, both parties have been guilty of attacking the opposing candidates, albeit mildly. PAS claimed Tengku Zaihan was not a local while several Barisan leaders had been keeping harping that Che Long was  “only” an SPM graduate.

Tengku Zaihan was born in the heart of Kuala Besut while Che Long was a self-made businessman known for his charitable ways. The candidates themselves however have not been involved in this petty politicking.
Political analyst Khoo Kay Peng expects a Barisan victory  as he the Malay electorate to be more likely to be thankful for all the help they receive from the government.

Other observers agree that there is little chance of PAS creating an upset and the blue wave is set to dominate Wednesday night when the results are known.