Malaysia government's silent election fear is voter apathy

KUALA LUMPUR -- Malaysia's ruling coalition is braced for a possible protest vote at elections next weekend, but the word on the street is that apathy may be the real threat.
Campaigning for the March 8 polls has so far focused on clear signs of discontent in the minority ethnic Indian and Chinese communities with the coalition's policies on race and religion.
The coalition, which has governed for five decades, needs its core supporters in the ethnic Malay majority to turn out in force to counter such a backlash, but senior insiders worry that many Malays may stay at home instead.
"I'm concerned that even those who have registered to vote seem doubtful whether they would go out to vote," former deputy premier Musa Hitam said in an interview in the New Sunday Times.
"Some are not happy with the government, yet don't feel they should come out and vote against the government. Some say they are simply fed up with politics...and some are saying 'Well, whether we vote or not, they are going to win for sure.'"
Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi insists the Malays will turn out to vote, and the pro-government Sunday Star newspaper carried a survey on Sunday predicting a record turnout, but voter apathy remains a concern among the ruling elite.
Even though Abdullah's re-election seems assured -- thanks to a weak and divided opposition -- a large protest vote, compounded by a failure to rally his own core supporters, could threaten his continued leadership, political experts say.
"Basically the enthusiasm has gone," said pollster Ibrahim Suffian, of local market-research firm the Merdeka Center. He said apathy was a particular risk among Malay voters, who form the bedrock of support for the Barisan Nasional coalition.
"It (apathy) would depress the incumbent's vote and inflate the opposition's vote," Ibrahim said.
Barisan has set a target of retaining at least two thirds of seats in federal parliament, the level required to change the constitution. The last time it failed to achieve that, in 1969, race riots erupted and a state of emergency ensued until 1971.
But about three-quarters of today's Malaysians were born after 1969, and political passions are cold among many voters. Almost 5 million Malaysians have not even bothered to register to vote, the New Sunday Times said.
"All those who head the youth wing in Barisan Nasional are grandfathers and uncles," Irwan Zaili Ariffin, 25, a motorcycle courier, said during a cigarette break in the capital this week. He said he had not enrolled to vote. "I don't care," he added.
Malay taxi-driver Sharil Ahmad, 45, an enrolled voter, said he would stay away from the polls on March 8.
"Whether I vote or not, Barisan will always win. That is a fact of life," Sharil said. "I don't think we have an alternative party who will do a better job. So there is no choice."
Abdullah denied in an interview with Reuters this week that he was concerned many Malay voters would stay at home.
"The Malays will vote," he insisted.
He is backed up by some young Malay voters like Khairy Azmi, a 25-year-old designer in the southern city of Johor Bahru.
"I will vote, because we have to choose the right persons and party to be our representatives. The government is OK. You can see around here there has been development," Khairy said.
But Abdullah, who came to power in 2003, faces a huge task to bring out the vote like he did at the last election in 2004, when 74 percent turned out, many of them coalition supporters inspired by their first change of leadership in 22 years.
His challenge this time will be voters like Hafizaidi Mahmud, a 37-year-old Malay lorry driver, who plans not to vote, unhappy with the coalition but not angry enough to vote against it.
"I support Pak Lah and the party," he said at a roadside cafe in Kuala Lumpur, using the premier's affectionate nickname. "But I know a lot of his party officials will come to my area with a lot of promises and once they win the elections, I don't hear from them," he added.(Reuters)