Grievances and complaints notwithstanding Pa’Lah will still get his 2/3 majority

By Datuk Rejal Arbee
courtesy of www.mykmu.net


The announcement of the dissolution of Parliament by the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi on Wednesday Feb 13 with polling being fixed on March 8 by the Election Commission ends weeks of speculation of the impending general elections. Nomination is fixed for Feb 24 thereby giving political parties 13 days of official campaigning more than what many had expected.

In fact preceding the announcement government leaders had already been going round the country giving out largesse to almost everybody. In certain places in Shah Alam areas near the flats in Section 16 and certain parts of Section 7 the blue dacing flags had already been put up and plastered everywhere since four or five days before Parliament’s dissolution.

Everybody is talking about the elections weeks before with the main stream media full of election related stories anticipating it. Yet no announcement was forthcoming until last Wednesday’s dissolution of Parliament followed by all the state assemblies except for Sarawak which had its state elections recently with its tenure expiring only in 2011.

Government leaders notably the Prime Minister have been announcing and giving out various forms of goodies to the people from increased allowances to mosques officials, higher dividends for Tabung Haji and EPF depositors, higher bonus cum dividend to LTAT shareholders (mostly members of the armed forces), assistance to Felda settlers, the fishermen and the padi farmers, the various mega corridor projects in Johore, the north, the east coast, Sabah and Sarawak, revival of the double tracking railway project now to cost more than double the original estimate made during Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s tenure but shelved immediately after Pa’ Lah became the PM because the country was said to be near bankrupt then.

So suddenly we now seem to be awash in money to undertake all these various mega corridor projects plus the give-outs which would set us back by billions. And this is not counting the subsidies for various essential food items, petrol, diesel and cooking gas which totaled more than RM30 billion a year.

So where is the money coming from? It can’t be because of the increase in oil prices. We are no Saudi Arabia. We produce only 700,000 barrels of oil a day against the Saudi’s 9.2 million barrels a day.

The development of the various corridors is short of declaring the whole country a corridor. There don’t seem to be any focus on such a development. So are we not spreading our resources too thin and in the end nothing much will come out of those corridors? Wouldn’t it be more prudent and more focused if the development were to be undertaken one at a time?

As a prelude to the announcement of the elections, the government seems to be bending backwards to placate grievances (even if unjustified) of the Chinese and Indians. Thus various announcements had been made to give more assistance to Chinese schools. Even the Damansara school (shifted from its previous premises on the road to Damansara Utama and Taman Tun Dr Ismail because of traffic congestion two years ago) would now be allowed to be reopened. The replaced school will continue to operate. In fact more vernacular (non national) schools would now be allowed so said Pa’ Lah.

So whither the policy to make Sekolah Kebangsaan the school of choice?

For the Indians, Thaipusam has now been declared a public holiday. We already have the dubious distinction of being among the top three or four countries in the world having the most number of public holidays in a year – more than 16 days (both Federal and State).

Then there is the decision not to demolish illegal Hindu temples. Would there now be a proliferation of Hindus temples all over? Would the Hindus now be allowed to set up temples anywhere they like, starting at a tree somewhere and later expanded into a full pledged temple especially after a Swami from India announced that the place is most auspicious after reading the stars?

And suddenly more senior appointments in the civil service seem to be going to the non-Malays.

All these decisions seem to give the impression that the government is only interested to placate the non-Malays but has not taken into consideration the sensitivities of the Malays. Is the government taking the Malays especially those in the rural constituencies, the Umno stronghold areas, for granted?

The Malay voters are now said to be more discerning but these are mostly confined to the middle class in urban and suburban areas. Those in the rural areas who are die-hard Umno supporters will remain so no matter what. And with palm oil and rubber prices at their peak, the small holders, the Felda and Felcra settlers have nothing much to complain about.

So its questionable whether the Malays would abandon Umno wholesale. So strategically it would be quite alright for the leadership to take the Malays for granted, at least for now. Despite what former PM Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said that the Malays are no longer like before when they would even have voted a log things have not changed that much.

That is why even the opposition parties after all these years still have a very limited objective for the elections; which is only to deny the Barisan Nasional its much coveted 2/3 majority in Parliament.

The opposition have never been united not even in 1990 when sentiments against the ruling coalition, especially Umno which was split following the setting up of Semangat 46 by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah was at its height. Even then the combined opposition could muster only 49 seats against the BN’s 127 in the 189 seat Parliament then.

And again in the 1999 election as a fallout from the dismissal of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and the formation of the so-called Barisan Alternative, the opposition could only be returned in 45 constituencies against the BN’s 145 in the 193 seat Parliament then.

So despite the page upon page of complaints and vitriolic attacks against the leadership and his hangers on over in cyberspace not much of a dent can be expected against the BN’s armour. Not unless the opposition parties can get their act together and be united as one just like the BN.

But can the voters expect the DAP and Pas to have a common workable policy? As of now there is only the limited understanding of not pitching one against the other so as not to split the opposition votes. Thus the DAP will only work with Parti Keadilan and not Pas and vice versa.

Parti Keadilan itself can’t still get out from its rut of championing the so-called unjust actions against its founder president Anwar. With such a limited objective what can we expect from the party? The same goes for Pas with its limited Islamic nation (according to its interpretation) objective and the DAP so obsessed with its anti-Malay policy questioning the special position of the Malays as enjoined in the Federal Constitution.

Thus until the opposition can get their act together, which do not seem likely even in the unforeseeable future considering their diverse and incompatible policies, nothing much can be expected of them. Even if they can get enough seats to form a simple majority government, they will not be able to set up a stable and workable government. The country will be in turmoil and God forbid we can even go the way of some of the African states the latest example being Kenya. And the voters know this.

Thus what they could get will only be a somewhat strong opposition, but still as the opposition.

Yet considering the current situation, with so much dissatisfaction and discontentment especially among the middle class and the urban population, when a lot of things seem to be going against the current leadership, like corruption, increasing incidence of crime and the lack of security and racial disharmony, the BN is still in a very commanding position.

And because of this some voters are already saying that they will deliberately cast spoilt votes by way of protest against the way things seem to be moving. It will thus be interesting to see whether there will be an upsurge in the number of spoilt votes cast on March 8.

Rejal Arbee
15 Feb 2008