Bread and butter issues to feature prominently

TheEdge
KUALA LUMPUR: The guessing game has stopped. Malaysians will go to the polls on March 8 to elect a new government. Nomination day is on Feb 24, leaving only 13 days for campaigning.
The Election Commission as in previous elections has opted for a short campaign period, not that political parties really need it as the country has been in an election mode for the last six months. Within this period, the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) government led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has launched three economic corridors which emphasise the development of Malay heartland in the peninsula and bringing more progress to Sabah and Sarawak. Dividends and bonuses within government-controlled unit trusts and superannuation fund of the armed forces have been generous.
Long overdue hitches including land matters for Chinese farmers were sorted out expeditiously and pledges were made to resolve some of the problems faced by the Indian community, particularly those highlighted by the Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf). Many among the Indians felt they were economically marginalised. In many of other BN-initiated programmes, the simple message delivered time and again is that the “tried and tested” will provide the stability needed to move this nation forward.
Not to be outdone, opposition party leaders have toured the nation presenting their case. Malaysia will not be a developed country if its key institutions lack integrity. There should be a stronger need to fight corruption, poverty, to reduce crime rates and to curb the abuses of the New Economic Policy. They presented their own economic agenda that will do away with race-based affirmative action and proposed a fairer socio-economic deal for all Malaysians. They want to do away with cronyism and let meritocracy reign supreme.
Thematic issues asides, the likely outcome for nearly all political pundits out there is that the BN will win and retain its two-thirds majority. This is mainly because the core political landscape in this country has not changed since 1969 — when the much smaller coalition Alliance, the precursor to today’s BN, suffered its heaviest defeat amidst racial unrest. Excluding parties in Sabah and Sarawak — the Alliance which comprised Umno, MCA and MIC — won only 67 of the 144 parliamentary seats then.
To ensure greater racial harmony is achieved, which is a key ingredient to the country’s political stability, Prime Minister Tun Abdul Razak extended the scope of the Alliance government by inviting opposition parties to join the new coalition BN. Big winners in that election, notably Gerakan which had gained control of Penang, PAS which retained Kelantan and nearly captured Terengganu and the People’s Progressive Party which secured 12 state seats in Perak and together with major opposition parties in Sabah and Sarawak accepted the offer.
While the Islamic party PAS, which in a political tussle with Umno over Kelantan, was booted out from BN in 1977, Sarawak and Sabah (except when PBS was in the opposition and won 14 seats in 1990) has always been a stronghold for BN ever since. Although their population is small, Sarawak and Sabah’s representation in Parliament is big, making up 56 of the 222 parliamentary seats in this election. A clean sweep in these two states, which is normally the case, will provide BN with a strong foundation to retain its two-thirds majority, in any general election for that matter.
Let’s take a look at what happened in the last two general elections. In 1999, the swing in voting pattern within the Malay community was evident as voters went against Umno and BN, mainly as a protest over the sacking and imprisonment of then deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Denied as much by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Umno that this was the case, it was Anwar who posed as the deciding factor that swung the vote and not any other socio-economic or political issues.
The biggest winner then was PAS, which contested mostly in the Malay heartland. At state level, it retained Kelantan emphatically, captured Terengganu convincingly, make tremendous inroads into Kedah and create new frontiers in Selangor and Pahang. It also secured 27 parliamentary seats. Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat won five parliamentary seats. BN’s popular votes were reduced from 65% to 56%.
In 2004, it was a different scenario. Mahathir had retired at the end of 2003 and newly appointed Abdullah went into his first election with a feel-good factor — the economy was in fine shape and along with it came the promises of fighting corruption, improvement of the government’s delivery system, further reduction in red tape, making businesses more conducive for the big and small enterprises, and a better life for the common people. Most of the voters would also want to give the new man at the helm of the government a fair chance. The endorsement was nearly absolute and BN regained the Malay votes that deserted it in 1999. BN registered its biggest win ever, winning 199 out of the 219 parliamentary seats contested. Umno stunted PAS’ progress by recapturing Terengganu, stopping the inroads gained into Kedah, Pahang and Selangor and nearly toppled it in Kelantan. BN’s overall popular votes increased back to 64%.
There is no doubt that BN will form the next government but will it get the same thumping endorsement? Unlikely, say many political observers. But what has changed? For Abdullah, four years into his premiership is a time for assessment on his administration; and if they have successfully delivered the many things they promised.
Political issue is not of great concern to many and even PAS is no longer harping on its Islamic country agenda at the national level. This is an election where the bread and butter issues matter most. Rising prices of many essential goods and the shrinking purchasing power will affect many people in the urban and rural areas. And prices are likely to increase further, notably fuel even if the government will only partially remove the subsidy. Opposition parties will capitalise on this possibility and has pointed out that they have ways to manage the country’s oil revenue better. Campaigns could also centre on why the crime rate is still high and why the recommendation made by the Royal Commission on the Police has not been speedily implemented.
Many are also of the view that corruption is still rampant and there is a lack of progress in overcoming this social disease. The revelations made by witnesses in the ongoing Royal Commission of Inquiry on the Lingam video, which allegedly involved the fixing of judges’ appointments, startled many, increasing calls for another Royal Commission to investigate the judiciary instead. Then there is the issue of fundamental liberties and civil rights, including the freedom to assemble. Some argued that these issues may concern the middle class only and it is not going to affect rural voters, notably the Malays who would prefer continued development. But the counter argument is that much of the Malay hinterland has actually become urbanised and that the majority of the Malay middle class today comes from the rural areas. Today, more of them and their families in the kampungs are aware of the relevancy of these issues.
How about the Indians and the Chinese? Will there be a change in their voting pattern? A poll by the Merdeka Centre, an opinion research firm, shows that approval rating among Indian voters for BN has dropped from nearly 80% to 40%. It is a huge unprecedented dip in support and their votes may make the difference in some closely contested parliamentary and state seats. As for the Chinese, status quo should remain, in the sense that votes might be evenly divided to ensure that Gerakan remains in power in Penang and its BN partner MCA is well represented in Parliament and that opposition DAP has enough seats to provide a strong dissenting voice there.
The best hope for opposition parties is to convince voters that they need to send more of their members to Parliament and state assemblies so that they can be a more effective “check and balance” power broker, for the simple reason that one cannot leave it to BN to scrutinise itself. In this election, Penang will be an interesting battleground with a few battle royal on the cards. Chief Minister Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon is likely to move to a parliamentary seat, paving the way for a new and untested leadership in the state, while DAP is keen to put up more of its national leaders to contest there. Penang is also the home state of Abdullah and Anwar.
Kelantan will be PAS’ defensive frontier. Umno is keen to wrest the state after 18 years but PAS is confident of retaining it. Umno wants to wipe PAS out of Terengganu but PAS believes it can regain lost ground there. The Federal Territory should also see some keenly contested seats between BN and opposition parties DAP and PKR.
But the key to BN’s margin of success will also depend on its list of candidates. Many expect Abdullah to use this election to retire many of the “old and tired” faces — notably those who are in their 60s — and replace them with new and young candidates who have no excess political baggage. Sometimes, change can be effective in moving forward the party and for it to execute and implement new ideas. If this is not reflective come nomination day, expect the contest to be tougher.