Credit Suisse: PM needs strong mandate for political longevity

The Edge
KUALA LUMPUR: Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi needs a strong showing in the general election before going into the Umno party polls later this year to ensure his political longevity, Credit Suisse analysts said.
In a research note on Wednesday, Credit Suisse Research said a strong mandate could strengthen Abdullah’s hand in the party polls.
“However, there is a concern that a poor electoral showing by Badawi could trigger a vote of no confidence (against him) at the party’s general assembly,” it added.
As a gauge of electoral success, Credit Suisse looked to the 1999 general election, which was held in the wake of the Asian Financial crisis and the arrest of former deputy prime minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
“In 1999, BN’s parliamentary majority was reduced to 76.7%. The political situation, in our view, now is far more stable than 1999.
“Hence, we believe that Badawi would be expected to at least best the coalition’s 1999 results. Note that the average majority since independence is 80.6%,” it said.
The research house also said BN may not repeat its landslide victory in 2004 when it captured 90% of parliamentary seats on the back of a change of leadership euphoria and promise of a fresh, cleaner start.
“In our view, the political honeymoon period is over and the various political “banana skins” amid high energy prices means a repeat of 2004 is very unlikely,” it added.
Credit Suisse cited the video clip controversy allegedly showing judicial fixing and Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf) demonstration as among the political banana skins for BN.
Considering that Malaysian voters were most concerned about bread and butter issues such as cost of living, social issues, crime rate and illegal immigrants, the research house said the government responded by announcing various populist measures.
Among these measures were the RM50 million social project fund for the Iskandar Development Region, a new RM10 million allocation to improve Chinese schools, extension for retiring policemen to beef up the force and the multi-billion ringgit Sarawak development corridor.
Credit Suisse said the government was expected to continue with its pump-priming measures into the second half by announcing measures to complement schemes such as the Employees Provident Fund monthly withdrawal scheme for housing loans and the July 2007 public sector wage increase.
“Indeed, the federal budget, pushed forward into August from September, in our view, could contain similar populist measures,” it added.

tunku : those who opposing the present government, this is your chance to get at least 25% of parliamentary seat, if you can't than shame on you.ONLY 25%, can't the opposition secure that?